Syrian tragedy shaped by lessons of Iraq, Egypt, Libya and Afghanistan

Iraq, Egypt, Libya and Afghanistan; four different routes to regime change in the Middle East with four different outcomes:

• Iraq - direct military intervention and withdrawal has left the country in a sectarian limbo
• Libya - ‘arms length’ military assistance to the rebels has removed the regime but left an uncertain legacy
• Egypt - seemingly a relatively peaceful 'transition' has revealed the real power resides in the background with Generals reluctant to see democracy
• Afghanistan - meanwhile grinds away relentlessly in the background

The less than perfect outcomes of these upheavals are only small pieces of the jigsaw.

In the much bigger picture many other factors are shaping the ability of the international community to respond to the unfolding tragedy in Syria.

Russia and China have sided with the Assad regime, rendering the UN largely toothless. Iran shares a border with Syria and the nuclear face off between the Iranians and the US led international community continues; the hawkish presence of the Israelis is ever present. On top of this the Saudis have made no secret of their desire to see the rebels armed; the region is more unstable now than it has been for quite some time.

The result for Syria is that there is no decisive response from the international community to the situation and it is now a long battle of rhetoric and diplomacy to be followed by some inevitable horse trading.

As we watch with horror the death of children, with medics powerless to help because they lack supplies, and hear of the death of journalists that provide eyewitness accounts that brings such footage to life, we can’t help but feel that we’ve seen this all before and we will see it again and again and again…

The Assad regime's actions too are influenced by takeaways from Iraq and Libya. The judicially sanctioned execution of Saddam and the mob justice meted out to Ghaddafi send a powerful message if it is to avoid a similar endgame: it must kill the rebellion.